PEOPLE KEEP ASKING ME THE SAME QUESTION, SO I AM COMPELLED TO FLESH OUT MY ANSWER ON WHY MY BET IS ON TRUMP.

Trump is a phenomenon and one that I strongly rejected as real for a long time. I saw Trump born into a vacuum left by a completely tone deaf Republican party...my party. Never forget that our Republican party is first and foremost responsible for Donald Trump's ascension! It is the very fact that Republicans on the national stage largely refused to distinguish themselves from Democrats and that opened the door for anyone who behaved differently, to walk in.

I talked recently with a U.S Congressman and asked him why Republicans in Congress could not or would not stand up and act to block things such as the funding to bring Sryian refugee/terrorists into this country. You all could have guessed the answer. Our Congress is filled with politcians who are completely controlled by political correctness. What is political correctness? It is pure fear, fear of saying or doing anything other than the current group think. Folks, that is barely different than the way Communism gets control of and maintains its power.

By the way, this atmosphere invites kings to to step in to create kingdoms as well, hence Obama. We now have the top legislative body in our country afraid to act like anything other than a flock of sheep being lead around by not Jesus Christ but a type anti-Christ, a twisted king of sorts, with serfs more than happy to serve him.

Into this steps Trump, remember now, Trump was not the lone candidate running for office. Anyone had the free will to call out the obvious. Our country was sinking under Obama. Whether it was trashing healthcare against the people's will, bringing in illegals to soak up jobs and drive down wages or Obama making one sided deals with our sworn enemy Iran, that completely compromised our and the world's security, we the people had had enough. The people were screaming sure enough and anyone else could have could have called out the shackles that Obama had placed on America, thereby attempting to break to break his stranglehold. But Washington was silent and even the candidate debates started off with largely business as usual.

Then came the Syrian refugee "crisis". We were told we had to act even though our own FBI Director Comey vehemently warned that there was no way to vet these people. Obama assured us that they would be vetted, not unlike telling us we could keep our Doctors and health plans. Our elected representatives were not only silent but worse they went right along with Obama's wishes. People in the heartland knew that there was an elephant in the room. They could not understand why those we had elected did not act to save our country from the danger or even speak out! What is worse, we had an example in Europe of exactly what not to do and yet, D.C. did it anyways. Paul Ryan's passage of funding for bringing in Syrian refugees/terrorists was the straw that broke the camel's back for many of us. We knew that  it was clear that our country was not only sinking but by our elected representatives inaction, was now a likely goner as well!

This is a long way of saying that in a frighteningly stifling atmosphere of political correctness, one man opened his mouth and called, 'BULLSH*TH' on it all. Before anyone instantly dismisses this act as BS in and of itself, understand that you had a U.S Congressional body of "leaders" who could not utter a word out of fear and yet one man had no fear, Donald Trump. He not only spoke but spoke so loudly and clearly that what Trump said was understood all the way to Poughkeepsie!

When Donald Trump first broke through the bonds of political correctness I was excited, not because I believed in Trump but because I knew he was showing the Republicans the way out of the wilderness...or so I thought. Did the Republican candidates understand their new found key to freedom that they had just been given? No! Much like the tethered farm animal who one day is unleashed but due to conditioning, still stands in his worn out tracks, Republicans, rather than regale their unshackling, not unlike the newly emancipated slave who yet still chooses to stay on and work the Masta's plantation, these pols chose to attack Trump's bold words rather then exercise their now freed wrists. Why, it was even declared "racsist", that Trump should dare to think of the safety American's over the poor plight of refugees!

I, like many Americans, watched with disgust to see even the supposed best of the candidate class, fall in line with Obama's group think.
Did Trump fall prey to the group think and moderate? NO! He continued slaying the political correctness beast! Stop and think for one minute. Here is a man who is being reviled by the press, the political establishment, his own candidate class and if that wasn't enough, the world took on Donald Trump as well. The Brits wanted to ban his travel to their country! DO YOU UNDERSTAND THE STEEL WILL AND RESOLVE THAT A MAN MUST HAVE WITHIN HIMSELF TO TAKE THAT LEVEL OF ONSLAUGHT AND NOT WAIVER? I am left chuckling when the man's critics dismiss him as fluff!

Though I was still not convinced that he was the right candidate, he certainly showed me that if anyone had their eyes and mind open, they could certainly see there was a road forward for the Republican party that had just been plowed though by Donald Trump. Now if they would just step foot on the path. Certainly the higher ups within the party understood this. But ...it was crickets chirping ...as per usual.

Meanwhile, an electorate, ignored for election cycle after election cylcle, with eyes wide open, saw exactly what I was seeing, and they knew someone had broken through and held the key to bringing America back from the edge. Someone who was not just pulling us back from disaster but someone who had beaten back failures to become an ultimate success story himself, Trump stated that he yearned to make America great again ...something we all yearned for as well.

In the midst of all this,  Cruz was still my choice.
But the numbers for Trump, both at the polls and at the rallies, kept rising. Americans, it appeared, were choosing their new champion. At one point, I commented on FB, "How do you stop a runaway train?" But the most important point to note in all of this, is that Trump was crossing over. He was pulling, as Reagan did, the Dems and independents. Even more interesting was that he was pulling the disenfranchised and the dissaffected. He was pulling the apolitical in and welcoming them back into the process.

I am an idealist. I always have been. But I am not brain dead. I have learned the hard way over decades, that standing on the train tracks and shouting, "I don't like trains they make too much noise." may get you some attention in the short run, but it gets you flowers and a casket in the long run. For those friends of mine who say, "If I don't get candidate X, I might as well vote for Hillary, so I am staying home!" Please realize, to rational people you merely come off as dangerous, because some of you gave us the first Obama win which started us on the steepest decent  of our already decending country. So while I am an idealist, I am a realist first. That is why Reagan's principle in sum says, find the person who matches the ideals of conservatism the best but make sure they can win, first.

Which now brings me to why I believe Trump can and Cruz can't. If your not going to pick a candidate on pure emotion then the end process will at minimum work the strengths plus weaknesses equation. Keep in mind though, that the body electorate is largely influenced by emotion. Both men are sharp and at the top of their game sharp. (If you are one of those who has been calling Trump a bufoon, just leave now, because you have already proven who the real bufoon is.) Secondly, keep in mind this is a two part election. You are not picking a candidate based on the primary alone. The primary objective is, who can make it through the general election. I have watched too many purists look at this race in simplistic primary colors when it is truly, in the general election, all about shades.

On pure conservative politics, Cruz is hands down, the runaway winner. But this election nor any election is about pure pricipled politics. (Oop, there go some of you out the door. Thanks for wasting a few minutes of your day.) Politics is about where the majority of the electorate is at, versus where the  candidate is at...and both of those things can be very fluid at the same time. I know some of you are ready to bail also because you want to believe that your candidate's beliefs are etched in stone. (If you are about to leave, run fast you might be able to catch up with the first group for a cup of coffee) No candidate has their beliefs etched in stone and wins. Do you know why? Because we do not have an electorate whose political beliefs are etched in stone. We are human beings and that means we generally change our minds, sometimes a lot and sometimes to the point that we are called downright fickle! This should not shock any of us.

A candidate must posses the ability to tailor his or her speaches to the audience at hand. You don't believe it? Follow your favorite  politician, you know, the one who is etched in stone, from state to state  and observe. They all change their speeches to pander to the local flavor. It is politics 101. Every candidate has to be able to touch their audience in a personal way. I call it likability. I have not met either Trump or Cruz but observed both on the stump through the media. Both appear to have a great likability factor when casually  interacting.

Candidates have to show accomplishment, the trust factor that tells a voter, it's not just words, they have DONE IT! Trump's strength is that he can show something for his bravado. Before anyone even opens their mouth about Trump being handed it all to him by his father, I call BS! Most everyone was handed a stake to get started with a house, a business or a job move. Trump was given a stake by has father to begin his business. It was a pittance compared to what he has accomplished with it. And if you are not in the business world, I am sorry, please just shut up until you ever get the moxy to try it for yourself. I own my own business and it takes balls from the moment you decide to take the plunge to the moment you close up shop and I am playing small ball compared to Trump. Cruz, has his succesful record in arguing cases before the Supreme Court. Again, both men are at the top of their game. Cruz will get the edge for his conservative cause accomplishments on this one, at least in the primary.Therefore on the primary side, I believe Cruz has the edge when viewed through the conservative prism of Republican voters. So Cruz wins...or does he?

Remember, Cruz was my guy. But there was was a gut problem I always had with him. Cruz is clearly on the right side in so many ways but then I kept asking myself why is Trump climbing over Cruz? I had to go back and re-examine Trump.

Trump connected early and deep with the voters and who were those voters? Well, again they came from all parts of the political map. But why? What was it about Trump? I relooked at who I was. I was that disenfranchised angry voter that at one point had given up on the system. Trump was saying what I was trying to say but no was one listeng to me...but they were listeng to Donald Trump!

Trump took command of the media in a way that neither I or anyone else had seen before. He made them listen when no one else could. When the Republican establishment said there was nothing that could be accomplished until the grassroots handed them a third victory for the White House, here came Donald Trump, not meekly knocking on the media's door but blasting it down! He, unlike the Republican "leadership", did not take no for an answer. He worked the media as masterfully as a virtuoso. He was, by sheer force of will it appeared, addressing everything that we the people have been screaming about to politicians at recent town hall meetings etc., and Trump was being heard!

Trump was making things happen while others merely made excuses for nothing happening. It was staggering to watch....and watch they did. In droves the people traveled to his events. They stood in line for hours and were turned away by the thousands at maxed out large venue rallies. Donald Trump was dishing up what a starving crowd was hungry for. The American electorate was finally being sated!

So what does one make of this spectacle? No one else was pulling in crowds like this. Some have dismissed it as merely a cult following that won't show up at the polls. Really? They will stand in line freezing their butts off for hours but won't stand in line for a few minutes in a heated school gym to vote for the man that they clearly identified with?

This couldn't be so easily rationalized away. People actually believed what the man was saying, "America can be great again!" Was he merely channeling their anger...or was Donald himself the angry guy, not unlike us, who saw our country being dismantled. Trump made his fortune in the land of opportunity, a rich country full of a vibrant middle class, let alone an abundance of the millionare class to aspire to. For those with their eyes wide open under the reign of Obama, who saw the king dismantling the kingdom brick by brick, it is hardly implausible to see Trump angry at the destruction of what was once the greatest of nations, the Trump Towers  of the world, so to speak. He gave voice to the voiceless. Trump empowered we the people, something that during our Nation's days of greatness, we always assumed as the norm.

That brings us to my conversion, the general election. Though Cruz's idealism was still pulling at me, my gut knew there was something very wrong, that something, was the general election. At this point the poll numbers for the two were still close and my belief was that Cruz could pull off a primary victory. But the poll numbers did not move in Cruz's favor. This was the reason the  general election, let alone the primary gave me rise for concern. There had to be something more to Trump's continual rise over Cruz.

That something of Trump's is an X-factor working for him. It is that unquantifiable  disruptive factor in what ever discipline that is being studied.  It defies all traditional methods of examination. We were no longer talking about externals with Donald Trump. He was reaching people on a core level deep inside, something very few people throughout history have accomplished. It became obvious to me that this X- factor was going to be the key to an election win and absolutely could not be ignored.

There are many ways to reach people, there is an intellectual route, methodically laying out principles, beliefs etc, for peoples brains to absorb. There is an emotional route, that gives people the warm and fuzzies, that says, "I don't know but I just like the guy!" And then there is the X-factor that mixes it all up into a potion No.9. Trump's X-factor crosses over and pulls in from all directions. It is the key to any general election win. On the other hand, the more extreme one appears the less likely one can crossover into that necessary middle sector.

Once I got a handle on what was happening with Trump's rising numbers in the primary race, it became obvious that Trump was way ahead for the general election as well, because the middle, the place where the independents and the undecideds live, is where campaigns are won in a split electorate country, such as ours.

There are more details on what I could say about the need to be flexible or the necessity for skilled negotiating skills, all insights that I have into both candidates but I have no doubt that I have bored you long enough. Besides that, I have basically answered the question as to why I bet on Trump. Again, from the beginning, He is not an idealist's conservative candidate nor have I have ever said that Trump is the best candidate period, but he is the best out of the field, that I believe can win both the primary and the general election...and winning both is all that counts if you want to effect change rather than just stand in front of the charging train, shouting, "Stop!". That is a fact, whether you like it or not!

Bring on the Rebellion!

I read with bemusement “This Rebellion is Different”( http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/this-time-the-republican-rebellion-is-different-b99652552z1-365490021.html ), as yet another pontificator offered up his prognosis as to what political virus has infected the electorate to bring on this latest fevered people’s rebellion.

The political class and its observers have come late to the “rebellion” party, so to speak, for the same reason that the rebellion even got a start in the first place. They simply have played the game of politics for the sake of politics for so long that they have completely lost sight of the purpose for serving in political office in the first place, which is to have a connection to and to do the bidding of we the people. If there ever was a classic case of the tail wagging the dog, this is it.

Politicians are extremely short-sighted often not able to see past the next election. But when they lose complete sight of raison d'etre, they might as well fold up tent because those who hired them will surely come around to eventually firing them as well!

Lest Sunday’s article leave the reader with the presumption that “the people” only find cause for want with one side of the aisle, allow me to inject some reality towards achieving perfect 20/20 vision. I have friends on both the left and the right and I can assure that general dissatisfaction exists within both the left and the right!

With that observation, we might actually be able to have a half a chance of getting closer to the truth of today’s political world. In general, we the people are tired of people playing politics. More specifically, we are just plain tired of being played. Both parties are guilty. We are trotted out like good little pets when “the machine” needs the work done. And who is the machine? It is the moneyed interests on both sides of the aisle, those who would never lower themselves to do the work but are more than happy to grease the machine as long as they get to control what the machine produces. Meanwhile the poor schlub at the bottom helps win election after election, with what result? Those, both in the political office and the moneyed interests that put them there, treat one another like kings, while the workers get treated like serfs on the lord’s estate! One hand greases the other at the top while the little guy at the bottom gets to play dog begging for crumbs at the master’s table. Pontificators, are we getting the picture yet?

Never make the foolish presumption that it is business as usual in any party these days. This is an awakened class of voters on all sides and the proof is in the poll numbers from both parties. Much of this awakening has to do with the internet bringing information to the masses without filter by the mainstream media. Then add in social media sharing and POOF, the perfect recipe for an Egyptian rebellion -political style in America.

In reality, it is all very simple. But when you believe that you are playing master and commander, as either pols, string pullers or media, the most simple thing having to do with the will of the people is very easy to miss, isn’t it?

Bring on the rebellion!

Vince Schmuki